‘He needed all of it’: How Mike Mazzei’s millions helped deliver a narrow victory

The Frontier spoke with pollster Pat McFerron about Mike Mazzei’s slim win over Gentner Drummond to secure the Republican nomination for governor.  McFerron is president of the Oklahoma-based polling firm Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates. 

For the full interview, listen to our podcast.

Dylan Goforth: Let’s talk about what we saw last night. It’s funny: There were a lot of eyes on the election, but not so many votes. Once again, turnout in an Oklahoma runoff wasn’t great, but everyone was paying attention to what happened. When you look at the runoff results, what do you think Oklahoma voters told us?

Pat McFerron: I think the key takeaway is a little bit of a repudiation of the Freedom Caucus. Obviously, everyone wants to talk about the governor’s race, which was very, very close. I believe it’s the closest Republican runoff election we’ve had in the state for governor.

But I think the continuation last night of support for Senate Pro Tem Lonnie Paxton — and voters increasingly siding with him over the Freedom Caucus — is probably the biggest takeaway.

That, and I think you hit on it a little bit, is how few people are participating. I do think the Republican runoff election exceeded some people’s expectations, but you’re still talking about less than 10% of Oklahoma residents participating. It’s a larger percentage of voters, but we’re talking about a state of 4 million people. Less than 10% decided who is likely to be the next governor of the state.

Dylan: Looking at the governor’s election, Mazzei won by essentially half a percentage point. Does that look like basically a coin flip, or did you see something in the results that explains why Mazzei was able to hold off Drummond, even by the slim margin that he did?

Pat: If you compare the margins — if you took out the other candidates in June and looked at the margins Drummond and Mazzei had vis-à-vis each other, then looked at what happened last night — the southeastern part of the state turned out pretty solidly and really moved toward Mazzei.

In McCurtain County alone, Mazzei won by a little over 2,000 votes. He picked up 779 net votes there. So he picked up more than a third of his statewide margin in McCurtain County alone.

Dylan: Do you think that’s the Trump endorsement? I know southeastern Oklahoma, and I don’t think of Mazzei as your typical southeastern Oklahoma candidate.

Pat: It is the most Trumpian. I think the Brecheen endorsement there mattered. You also had the late Markwayne Mullin endorsement. Those are the last two congressmen there.

Especially in McCurtain County, which is in the Shreveport media market, they’re not seeing quite as much television advertising as some of the others are. I think they rely a little more on endorsements. So, yes, I do think that’s a key part of it there.

Dylan: Let’s talk about the money, because I think that’s an interesting part of the results. There was a lot of spending. I think Mazzei took out almost $12 million in loans. The Associated Press reported more than $14 million in television and digital advertising during the runoff, with many more millions spent before that.

What did Mazzei actually buy with that money?

The Frontier Watchdogs

Never miss an investigation that changes Oklahoma.

Independent investigative journalism delivered free to your inbox.

Email address

Always free. Never a paywall.

Leave this field empty if you're human:

Pat: When a race is this close, any decision on financing probably makes a difference. So, yes, I would argue that he needed it all to get there.

That being said, you may recall I released numbers three weeks out that had it at 44-44. I did two other surveys that I did not release that had it at 45-45, and the last survey I did, which I finished last Thursday, had it at 45-45.

That makes you wonder whether the money was wasted. But if it hadn’t been there, you don’t know what would have happened on the other side. It looks to me like he needed all of it—or almost all of it—to be successful.

Dylan: Taking out $12 million in loans is enough to give you stress. But I guess when you win by 2,000 votes, you don’t look back and regret taking out those loans.

Pat: The worst feeling, and I’ve been on campaigns that have done this before, is to say, “I should have done something else. I should have put in another $100,000, or I should have done X, Y or Z. If I’d bought broadcast television in Shreveport, maybe I would have done better in McCurtain County.” Those are the things that drive you crazy.

Very seldom do I have someone say, “We paid for a landslide, and I’m upset about it.”

Dylan: I love a close race because it gives you so much to think about and dwell on. When you’re talking about 2,000 votes, anywhere you’re picking up votes is relevant, important and probably meaningful.

One thing I was thinking about last night was the polling you released before the runoff. These guys had essentially been tied for a long time. I remember seeing numbers in June, and the June election results were close.

What do last night’s results — and the way the last six months played out — tell you about where the supporters of the other candidates went?

Pat: Obviously, it means they split rather evenly.

I haven’t gone down to this level yet, but looking at the maps, it appeared Drummond ended up winning out west, where (Jake) Merrick and (Chip) Keating had done well. Mazzei did well on the eastern side of the state, where McCall had more support.

For example, in Atoka County, it wasn’t a huge difference, but compared with June, Mazzei picked up a net 294 votes. In a county where only about 1,600 people voted, that’s a pretty big margin.

Dylan: For people looking through the numbers today and trying to sort this out, are there any obvious mistakes you would caution them against making when interpreting the numbers?

Pat: One thing that’s interesting in a race this close is looking at local elections. That’s something I always advise people to do.

Look at the turnout in Ottawa County, for example. We actually had 58% more people vote in the August Republican runoff than voted in the June primary. They had a much larger turnout because there was a local sales-tax issue on the ballot that got 94% of the vote, I think.

Their sheriff had been sued, and everybody was going to pay this big settlement through property taxes. They decided to pay it off with a sales tax instead. That meant a lot more people voted in Ottawa County.

We saw the same thing in Adair County and Tahlequah, where there were some very important school bond issues on the ballot. Those were also places where more people voted in August than in June. Looking at some of those things matters when you get into a race that’s this close.

That’s all short-term. Long term, I think one of the keys will be the involvement of the metro areas in nominating Republicans in the future.

We’ll see what happens with Cyndi Munson, and all due respect there, but if you look at the residents of Oklahoma, Tulsa, Cleveland and Canadian counties, they account for about 48% or 49% of all the residents in the state. They accounted for only 42% of the Republican primary voters. If you change that—and given that Drummond won those counties—he might be the nominee.

Oklahoma County did turn out quite a bit more in the runoff than it did in the primary. Tulsa County did a little more, percentage-wise. But to me, that’s a big question: Are we going to continue to be a state with rural dominance even though the metro areas are becoming more populated?

Dylan: I want to look ahead to November. If you’re advising Cyndi Munson, what does such a close split in the Republican runoff tell you about Mazzei’s strengths and possible vulnerabilities? Is there anything in the results that gives a Democrat an opening or hope?

Last night, I went back to look at the split between Drew Edmondson and Kevin Stitt in the 2018 governor’s election. Obviously, the Munson campaign isn’t going to say, “Our goal is to lose by less than Edmondson lost by.” But is that a good starting point for them to look at those results? What would you tell her to do over the next few months?

Pat: I will tell you, 2018 is a lot different from 2026. With the teacher walkout and everything else, our generic-ballot test in 2018 had only about an eight-point Republican advantage. I’m at a 20-point Republican advantage in 2026.

I think you have to create your own hope. But I don’t think the opportunity for the Munson folks is necessarily the Gentner Drummond voters. I think it’s the Republicans who stayed home, and they’re a tougher group to reach as well.

They’re a little less engaged. They will vote Republican, but I think it’ll take a little while to happen. I think we’ll see the Republicans come back together.