11/4/11 4:23:34 PM -- Riverside aerials Photo by Shane Bevel

Tuesday’s Vision Tulsa election includes funding to overhaul Zink Dam and the city’s contribution to the construction and maintenance of a low-water dam further south on the river. SHANE BEVEL/For the Frontier

If recent history is any indicator, the Zink Dam improvements included in Tuesday’s Vision Tulsa election have a good chance of being approved.

But a good chance is not a slam dunk.

Why the upbeat prognosis? Because this is a city of Tulsa vote, and Tulsans have given a thumbs-up more often than a thumbs-down to river-related proposals the last 13 years.

Three times since 2003, Tulsans have been asked to support river-development initiatives, and twice they’ve voted to approve the proposals.

Typically, it’s been folks in those other communities in Tulsa County that haven’t been as supportive.

So advocates of the Zink Dam overhaul included in the $884.6 million Tulsa Vision package might have reason to believe this time will be different.

Because it is: Tulsans alone will determine whether the dam is fixed and a lake emerges behind it.

They don’t have to worry what the rest of the county thinks about the project. On the flip side, if the proposition fails, they won’t have anyone but themselves to blame.

The second dam in the Vision Tulsa package, proposed for 103rd Street and Riverside Drive, is a different story. That project depends on residents of Jenks and a third funding partner  — possibly the Muscogee (Creek) Nation  — coming up with their share of the construction and maintenance costs. (Jenks residents will vote on their own Vision package Tuesday that includes funding for the south Tulsa/Jenks dam).

By the way, as of Wednesday, there were 199,508 registered voters in Tulsa.

Here’s a look at Tulsa’s voting numbers on river-related initiatives since 2003 and sample ballots for Tuesday’s city of Tulsa and Tulsa County elections. The figures are from the Tulsa County Election Board.

Sept. 9, 2003, Vision 2025: This was a whopping countywide success. All four propositions on the ballot passed with more than 60 percent of the vote. That includes Proposition 4, which included approximately $71 million to build low-water dams, shoreline beautification and silt removal.

In the city of Tulsa, 45,725 people voted for Proposition 4 and 28,978 voted against it, a 61 percent approval rating among those who cast ballots.

The election drew 128,633 voters countywide out of 326,540 registered voters, or approximately 40 percent.

Oct. 9, 2007: This countywide election asked voters to approve $154.85 million over seven years to implement parts of the Arkansas River Master Plan and other river-related projects. It didn’t pass.

The sales tax initiative was rejected countywide by voters 67,030 to 60,744, or 52.5 percent to 47.5 percent.

But voters in Tulsa approved the measure 38,269 to 36,116, or 51.5 percent to 48.5 percent.

Overall, 127,774 of the 326,787 registered voters turned out to cast a ballot. That’s about 40 percent participation.

Nov. 6, 2012, Vision2: Voters countywide, including residents of Tulsa, rejected both propositions on this ballot.

In the city of Tulsa, Proposition 1, which included funding for city-owned infrastructure at the airport, was defeated 64,310 to 57,566, or 52.8 percent to 47.2 percent.

Tulsans rejected Proposition 2 by a vote of 63,699 to 57,566, or 52.5 percent to 47.5 percent. This proposition included approximately $71 million to rebuild Zink Dam and build a low-water dam in south Tulsa/Jenks.

Countywide, 218,352 of 337,349 of registered voters, or 65 percent, went to the polls.

Tulsans on Tuesday will be asked to vote on three propositions: Proposition 1 includes $272 million for public safety; Proposition 2 includes $102 million for transit and street maintenance; and Proposition 3 includes $510.6 million for economic development.

Proposition 3 is where Tulsans will be asked to approve funding for low-water dams. The plan calls for spending approximately $127 million to pay for an overhaul of Zink Dam and Tulsa’s contribution to the second proposed low-water dam in south Tulsa/Jenks.

Tulsa County’s Vision proposal would bring in $60 million to $70 million and would be for road improvements, levees and other capital needs.

City of Tulsa Vision Tulsa ballot

Tulsa County Vision renewal ballot